publications

Demography, Migration, and Political Narratives

RAM B. BHAGAT

Abstract

Demography is subtly shaping politics. Size, growth, composition, and distribution of the population, as influenced by fertility, mortality, and migration, are the dimensions and components of complex demographic changes. The political discourse often surrounds these issues in a very simplistic way, and even without data. Differential population size, growth, and migration have emerged as prominent parts of the political narratives. In political discourse, issues like illegal and refugee migration and fertility differentials by religious and ethnic groups have been shaping the political imagination. Xenophobia, loss of cultural identity, and threat to national security form the political narratives linked to demographic changes in general and illegal migration in particular. In this context, the census in general and the caste census in particular, the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies, NPR, NRC, and SIR are linked to demographic changes hotly debated and contested. In this lecture, it is argued that Demography is a quantified and measurable science that cannot be left to the speculation
of numbers fomenting social anxiety and disturbing social harmony. The lecture highlights some pertinent methodological issues related to concepts, data, and measurement of demographic changes in general and migration in particular, illuminating myths and realities of the political narratives shaping identity politics